By Ksenija Ivanović
When the discipline of Economics first dabbled in the study of migration, it was quickly established that workers – assumed to have all the information and opportunities, of course – move to earn more elsewhere. This simplistic view was challenged from both within and outside the discipline; after all, it has long been recognized that migration, unless forced, is a complex and personal decision or aspiration: everything we can think of and more could play a decisive role. Examples of these factors are found on different and interrelated levels. On an individual level, we might be looking into one’s age, education or intangible characteristics such as personality (are you a risk-taker?) and emotions. On the community level, we could examine the role of family, social ties at home and abroad or migration culture in the community. Finally, on the macro level, we should consider factors such as employment opportunities or ‘institutional stability.’
While we cannot fully explain why people migrate, interest in the question has never ceased. As humans, we are curious about how other humans think, feel and make decisions. As scholars and researchers, we want to understand the phenomenon of migration to expand our knowledge and help solve concrete problems. Globally, one such problem are skills shortages – a lack of people with required skills or education for a given position. In Europe, skills shortages are exacerbated by negative demographic trends and needs of digital and green transitions.
GS4S: examining skills shortages and labor migration in the Western Balkans
Recognizing the problem of skills shortages, the Horizon Europe project Global Strategy for Skills, Migration and Development (GS4S) builds new knowledge, examines potential solutions (e.g. greater investment in education, automatization, skills partnerships, improved procedures for recognition of qualifications or – traditionally – labor migration) and develops practical tools for policymakers. Led by researchers at the Radboud University – Tesseltje de Lange, Pascal Beckers and Colleen Boland – the interdisciplinary consortium consists of fourteen partners from ten countries (EU and non-EU countries, which are Bangladesh, Egypt and Nigerna).
GS4S also focuses on emigration to the European Union (EU) from the Western Balkans (WB) – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegoina, Kosovo,* Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. As I am from Montenegro, this topic has my specific interest. Both regions severely struggle with skills shortages, yet there is a long history of emigration from the WB to its neighbor. Its high but imprecisely estimated levels – for purposes of work, study or family reunification – have started to cause concern in both regions. In the EU, there is a turn towards ‘migration management’ and ‘control.’ In the WB, there are concerns about who is leaving, and how this will impact development and demographic trends in the region.
An additional element to this relationship is EU accession: all WB countries are candidates for EU membership, with the exception of Kosovo – a ‘potential candidate.’ Based on previous experiences, notably with Croatia, it can be expected that once WB countries join the EU, emigration to other member states would increase for a foreseable period. This aggravates existing concerns, and raises questions. On the one hand, how does emigration from the WB to the EU impact skills shortages in the WB? On the other hand, what role (if any) do skills shortages in both regions play in migration aspirations?
Recently, GS4S published a working paper and a policy brief examining the two questions. The working paper was co-authored by researchers from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), European University Institute (EUI) and the Radboud University (RU), who examined the role of skills shortages in migration aspirations and destination preferences of individuals in the WB region. The two-stage analysis (based on the Heckman selection model) concludes that skills shortages play a significant role in migration aspirations: people are more likely to want to migrate if there are skills shortages in their occupation abroad, while shortages in their home country reduce migration aspirations. When choosing between destination countries, skills shortages are again important. As specified in the paper: ‘’the probability of choosing a specific destination increases if there is positive growth of Job Vacancy Rates in the relevant occupation within that country’’ (Beckers et al., 2024, p. 30).
In other words, both regions should consider labour market conditions when formulating migration policies. Possible ways to do so were discussed in an accompanying policy brief by the researchers at wiiw and the RU. Policy recommendations – developed for policymakers in both regions – are in three main categories:
Industrial policy to address labour shortages and boost technological development. In the WB, it is essential to improve labor market conditions to combat realities such as high (long-term) unemployment and inactivity rates. Industrial policy has an important role to play, via: an improved access to finance for innovative businesses and programs in the region, greater involvement of the WB in European value chains, and increased investment by high-tech multinational enterprises based in western EU member states.
Migration and skills development policies. There is ample room for improvement. For the WB, the main recommendations included further development of Active Labor Market Policies that encourage lifelong learning and re-/up-skilling, creation of jobs that offer a positive occupational trajectory, and better matching of talent and jobs by creating tools and platforms that offer more insights into labor market needs and improve cooperation between different actors. The EU could enchance the free movement of services and workers, offer more Erasmus + vocational education and training programs, promote cooperation between industries in both regions, and expand the scope of EU Talent Partnerships.
Improving data quality for market research and academia. Data scarcity was identified as significant obstacle to evidence-based insights into the abovementioned fields. For the WB, data availability and quality should be improved in areas such as: sectoral and occupational labor shortages, previous occupations and education of the unemployed or (if applicable) inactive populations and emigration statistics. The EU should ensure its Immigration Portal is kept up to date and used more effectively. Furthermore, a clear link between WB and EU data should be fostered, to create a ‘bridge’ essential for research into this migration corridor.
Interested to find out more on this specific topic? We invite you to dig deeper into our research, or listen to a recent CMR podcast episode with Mahdi Ghodsi (wiiw).
Other topics already covered or soon to be covered include overeducation of immigrants in Europe (paper); locating shortages in migrants’ countries of origin (paper); mobility under EU trade agreements; multinationals on global skilling; country of origin and non-migrant worker perspective; typologies of Talent Partnerships et cetera. The overarching question is how to make global and EU skills and talent partnerships fly. Hence our logo, the butterfly taking off.
*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
This blog post was based on:
Beckers, P., Ghodsi, M., Ivanović, K., Poeschel, F., Leitner, S., & Sabouniha, A. (2024). Skills-oriented migration in the Western Balkans: Linking workers’ migration aspirations to skill shortages in destination and origin countries. Available online at: https://wiiw.ac.at/skills-oriented-migration-in-the-western-balkans-linking-workers-migration-aspirations-to-skill-shortages-in destination-and-origin-countries-dlp-7014.pdf
Version in Serbo-Croatian: Beckers, P., Ghodsi, M., Ivanović, K., Leitner, S., Poeschel, F., & Alireza Sabouniha. (2024). Migracije na Zapadnom Balkanu usmjerene na vještine: Povezivanje aspiracija radnika ka migracijama sa nedostatkom vještina u zemljama odredišta i porijekla (Version 1). https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.32089.94560/1
Ghodsi, M., Ivanović, K., Leitner, S., Beckers, P., & Tesseltje De Lange. (2024). The impact of migration to the EU on labour shortages in the Western Balkans: Policy implications. Unpublished. https://rgdoi.net/10.13140/RG.2.2.29350.95049/1
For a full list of GS4S deliverables, please visit our website. The GS4S project is funded by the European Union. Follow us on LinkedIn or BlueSky.
Acknowledgment: A big thank you to Tesseltje de Lange and Colleen Boland for their feedback to this blog post.
Ksenija Ivanović is a junior researcher and project manager at the Nijmegen School of Management. She works on the Horizon Europe project GS4S (2024-2026). Ksenija’s background is in political economy, public policy and economics.
